Author: ["Joana Figueiredo","Andrew H. Baird","Saki Harii","Sean R. Connolly"]
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Abstract
The impact of ocean warming on coral larvae survival and dispersal is investigated using a dynamic model. The authors find that globally most reefs will experience large increases in the local retention of larvae, which make populations more responsive to local conservation efforts. However, increased larvae retention will also weaken connectivity between populations, which may affect recovery if a local population is severely disturbed. Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity1. Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas2. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster3,4,5, but suffer higher mortality4,5,6, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery.Cite this article
Figueiredo, J., Baird, A., Harii, S. et al. Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming. Nature Clim Change 4, 498–502 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2210 